Hodak Value

I don't have much to say about the Republican convention other than Palin appeared to be the clear highlight. My basic problem with them all is that they propose to protect us from threats of all sorts, and to send me the bill for their protection. I have to count on them spending my money wisely. History shows little promise of that.

I don't know how to put the graphs up here, but consider that the likelihood of the average American dying from heart disease is about 34%. You have about a 30% chance of dying from cancer. You have an almost 30% chance of dying from any other kind of disease, and about a 6 percent chance of dying in an accident. If the U.S. suffered the equivalent of a World Trade Center attack every single year, you would have a 0.2% chance of ever dying from terrorist activity.

Then consider that our government spends about 15 times as much money fighting terrorism as it does on all other threats to our health and safety put together.

Availability bias is the human tendency to ascribe a higher probability to events that come readily to mind. Over the last 8 years, many of us may have heard about or even witnessed the death of someone from disease or accident. But every one of us have seen or heard, with incessant repetition, about 9/11. The vivid sight of the plane crashing into the Twin Towers is burned into our national consciousness. 9/11 is a highly 'available' data point.

Our politicians have used that consciousness to organize a Dept. of Homeland Security and invade Iraq, the costs of which are approaching $500 billion. How many lives have been saved from all that fighting, over-the-top airport security, encroachment on our civil liberties, loss of respect among our allies, etc.?

The obverse of availability is peace of mind. We've paid dearly for it. But what would we have gotten by channeling a half a trillion dollars to medical research instead? Personally, I would much rather live with a greatly reduced fear of cancer than whatever solace I now get from having people check in at the security desk when entering my building--one of tens of thousands in Manhattan that have never been attacked.

I don't blame our politicians. They're doing what they do--grab money and power based on people's fears. The media creates the fear, which is regrettable, but they too are doing what they do to sell stories.

Ultimately I blame our schools. Our system turns out analytical morons. We are all much poorer for it.

While catching a glimpse of the conventions, I came across this wonderful exchange between Don Boudreaux and a plaintive writer:

Dr. Boudreaux,

Why are you so bitter about politics? Why so cynical? Why don't you give candidates and office holders the benefit of the doubt when they say they want to help others?

Sara

Continue reading "The Inimitable Boudreaux" »

Regarding Hurricane Gustav, Obama said:

I've instructed my Senate staff to monitor the situation closely, make sure we've contacted both FEMA but also private relief organizations just to make sure that whatever happens people are prepared.

The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.

"I am my brother's keeper and my sister's keeper."

Me, too, Barack. But I'm not your brother. We don't know each other. I'd rather that you choose who to help with your resources than with mine.

Unfortunately, I'll probably be making the same plaint to McCain.

For those of you who couldn't listen to the whole thing because you were looking for nickels in your sofa cushions, here's a summary:

"I was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania. It doesn't get more blue collar than that. My parents believed in the American dream. My dad fell on hard times, but we bounced back. He said to me, "Champ, when you get knocked down, get up. Get up." My mother told me, "Joey, God sends no cross you cannot bear." She taught us to have faith and be tough, and to face down every challenge. Our family has seen more than it's share of adversity. We did what we had to do, and I am so proud of what we achieved.

So, now that I see so many people struggling, I have to ask, "Why isn't the government helping all these people?"

ABC News has finally noticed that the political conventions in Denver and Minneapolis will attract a large amount of prostitution.

Typical for the MSM, they get story all wrong. ABC appears to be implying that politicos draw sex workers in unusual numbers, but that was belied way down in the article itself--all conventions draw sex workers in proportion to the number of attendees.

What ABC missed, of course, is the irony that sex workers, who are offering an honest exchange of companionship for money, have to pretend to hide what they do (well, sort of). In contrast, politicians who are offering a corrupt exchange of favors for money get to pretend that they're doing something completely different.

There may be some rational arguments for not lowering the drinking age below 21, but Mayor Richard Daley goes off on the proposal with none of them. His most coherent argument:

I'm sorry, you have enough time to drink the rest of your life. I believe in that.

You pay an awful lot of money. You look at the salaries that people get at universities. You pay a lot of money. I’m sorry, they have a legal and moral responsibility when your child goes to [get] an education, what type of environment is set on that university...

I think that’s a bad message. I think they better really look at that. Because what, are they going to drop it down to 18 or 17 or 16? I mean, think of that.

We should not be so whimsical that universities can think they drop the drinking age. You think the president of the university is going to open a beer hall in his house?

That was pretty much exactly what Minneapolis police told this doctor.

Americans love a hero. The guy who can grab victory from the jaws of defeat. The person who can come from behind to win the title. Wow.

But the hero fetish can be a bit perverted. I was reminded of this by an article today about Michael Phelps where ESPN ranked his eight gold medals in order of "most impressive" based on a poll of readers. Setting aside the inherent silliness of such a ranking, the poll results said something interesting about people.

The victory voted "most impressive" by 60 percent of the readers was Phelps' win in the 100m butterfly. This was the race he almost lost; the only one where he didn't break a world record. Getting almost a quarter of the vote was the other come-from-behind victory in the 400m freestyle relay anchored by Jason Lezak. None of the other races where he or his team won convincingly by shattering world records got as much as four percent of the votes. Maybe it's just me, but I would consider the races he dominated as pretty impressive. In sports, though, excitement often means the last second save.

The infatuation of the press and public with the "last second save" is understandable in sports, but it doesn't translate well to business. For my money, too many American companies are built upon what I would call the "heroic management" model. They would never invest in better management systems when things are going well; they see their success as evidence that they don't need them. When things turn south, they can't afford advice about systems; they need (and prefer) to invest in heroic measures. If they pull out of the dive, their faith in heroics is reinforced; a company of heroes doesn't need better systems. That's how they think.

My attitude is that any system that depends upon heroics to succeed is a system that is designed to fail. In fact, most of the companies I work with regard "heroic management" as a retarded model. They see the need for heroics as a failure in some management process.

My first experience with this alternative model was at Toyota, when I went through their manufacturing training program at their plants in Fremont and Lexington. Toyota as a company, just like their auto manufacturing, is designed for continuous improvement. I have since seen and implemented similar systems at other firms that, from the outside, don't look much different from their peers, until you see the results over many years at a time.

Still, I can see why the "heroic management" model remains so popular. Steady performance and continuous improvement are BORING. It doesn't get you on the cover of Business Week. Bold strategies get you there, win or lose--with the shareholders often being the losers.

U.S. Constitution:

nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb... nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law

Pennsylvania state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola has said

he plans to introduce legislation that would allow authorities to keep potentially dangerous sex offenders in prison after they have finished serving their sentences.