Hodak Valuetag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog/12008-09-05T08:51:14ZPerverse incentives are endemicMovable Type 3.34The political cost of availability biastag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3072008-09-05T07:02:52Z2008-09-05T08:51:14ZI don't have much to say about the Republican convention other than Palin appeared to be the clear highlight. My basic problem with them all is that they propose to protect us from threats of all sorts, and to send...every single year, you would have a 0.2% chance of ever dying from terrorist activity.
Then consider that our government spends about 15 times as much money fighting terrorism as it does on all other threats to our health and safety put together.
Availability bias is the human tendency to ascribe a higher probability to events that come readily to mind. Over the last 8 years, many of us may have heard about or even witnessed the death of someone from disease or accident. But every one of us have seen or heard, with incessant repetition, about 9/11. The vivid sight of the plane crashing into the Twin Towers is burned into our national consciousness. 9/11 is a highly 'available' data point.
Our politicians have used that consciousness to organize a Dept. of Homeland Security and invade Iraq, the costs of which are approaching $500 billion. How many lives have been saved from all that fighting, over-the-top airport security, encroachment on our civil liberties, loss of respect among our allies, etc.?
The obverse of availability is peace of mind. We've paid dearly for it. But what would we have gotten by channeling a half a trillion dollars to medical research instead? Personally, I would much rather live with a greatly reduced fear of cancer than whatever solace I now get from having people check in at the security desk when entering my building--one of tens of thousands in Manhattan that have never been attacked.
I don't blame our politicians. They're doing what they do--grab money and power based on people's fears. The media creates the fear, which is regrettable, but they too are doing what they do to sell stories.
Ultimately I blame our schools. Our system turns out analytical morons. We are all much poorer for it.]]>
The Inimitable Boudreauxtag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3062008-09-03T20:47:39Z2008-09-03T21:29:17ZWhile catching a glimpse of the conventions, I came across this wonderful exchange between Don Boudreaux and a plaintive writer:Dr. Boudreaux, Why are you so bitter about politics? Why so cynical? Why don't you give candidates and office holders the...
Dr. Boudreaux,
Why are you so bitter about politics? Why so cynical? Why don't you give candidates and office holders the benefit of the doubt when they say they want to help others?
SaraDon's magnificent response is below the fold.
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Dear Sara:
Thanks for writing. I often say, quite sincerely, that I'm not cynical about politics; I'm realistic about politics.
If a stranger knocks on your door and tells you that he or she is here for the express purpose of helping you, of serving you, of making your life better -- not because of anything that he or she will gain by doing so, but because he or she believes in your goodness and knows that you deserve more than you have -- what would you think? Would you give this person the benefit of the doubt, and trust that he or she really and truly is motivated chiefly and overwhelmingly by a desire to serve you?
Would you continue to give this person the benefit of the doubt on this score when he or she informs you that, to help you, he or she must have the power to tax you and to take away some of your liberties? When he or she assures you that, by some mysterious process, he or she "feels your pain"? When he or she modestly exclaims that those other persons standing on your porch ready to make pretty much the same offer cannot possibly care about you as much as he or she cares about you -- cannot possibly have sufficient skill, determination, and wisdom to improve your life; that only he or she possesses these qualities?
Would that benefit of the doubt continue to be given when you learn that, should you decide to trust this stranger with some of your wealth and your liberties, he or she will get lots of prestige and acclaim and applause simply because he or she holds power over you?
And would you persist in giving this person the benefit of the doubt when, should you ask probing questions about his or her motives or about inconsistencies you believe to have spotted in the plans he or she laid out for helping you, he or she suddenly begins dissembling or speaking in platitudes or vague generalities, or launches into stories of his or her past glory in some endeavor or other that has little to do with the power that he or she now seeks from you?
I suspect, Sara, that should such a person arrive at your door and deliver such a spiel to you that you'd quickly slam the door in his or her face, convinced (and correctly so) that that person is either an utter goofball or a supremely arrogant busybody. You'd want nothing at all to do with him or her, and if he or she persisted in knocking on your door you'd call the police or your bouncer-friend Bubba to escort this obnoxious person as far away from your home as possible.
So, if you'd not give such a person the benefit of the doubt, why in the world are you surprised that I don't give Barack Obama, John McCain, or any other successful politician you care to name the benefit of the doubt?
Sincerely,
Don BoudreauxIt doesn't get better than that.
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What did I miss in ConLaw?tag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3052008-08-31T18:17:32Z2008-08-31T18:29:08ZRegarding Hurricane Gustav, Obama said:I've instructed my Senate staff to monitor the situation closely, make sure we've contacted both FEMA but also private relief organizations just to make sure that whatever happens people are prepared.The Constitution, Article 2, Section 1,...
Obama said:
I've instructed my Senate staff to monitor the situation closely, make sure we've contacted both FEMA but also private relief organizations just to make sure that whatever happens people are prepared.
The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.
So, what is a U.S. Senator doing interfering with an executive agency? During an emergency?]]>
Obama's speechtag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3042008-08-29T04:59:00Z2008-08-29T03:57:21Z"I am my brother's keeper and my sister's keeper." Me, too, Barack. But I'm not your brother. We don't know each other. I'd rather that you choose who to help with your resources than with mine. Unfortunately, I'll probably be...
"I am my brother's keeper and my sister's keeper."
Me, too, Barack. But I'm not your brother. We don't know each other. I'd rather that you choose who to help with your resources than with mine.
Unfortunately, I'll probably be making the same plaint to McCain.
Biden's speechtag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3032008-08-28T04:59:59Z2008-08-28T05:13:00Z For those of you who couldn't listen to the whole thing because you were looking for nickels in your sofa cushions, here's a summary:"I was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania. It doesn't get more blue collar than that. My parents...
For those of you who couldn't listen to the whole thing because you were looking for nickels in your sofa cushions, here's a summary:
"I was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania. It doesn't get more blue collar than that. My parents believed in the American dream. My dad fell on hard times, but we bounced back. He said to me, "Champ, when you get knocked down, get up. Get up." My mother told me, "Joey, God sends no cross you cannot bear." She taught us to have faith and be tough, and to face down every challenge. Our family has seen more than it's share of adversity. We did what we had to do, and I am so proud of what we achieved.
So, now that I see so many people struggling, I have to ask, "Why isn't the government helping all these people?"
He then proceeded to bash "my dear, good friend, and I mean it," John McCain.]]>
A prostitutes' conventiontag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3022008-08-22T16:18:24Z2008-08-28T15:20:15ZABC News has finally noticed that the political conventions in Denver and Minneapolis will attract a large amount of prostitution. Typical for the MSM, they get story all wrong. ABC appears to be implying that politicos draw sex workers in...
finally noticed that the political conventions in Denver and Minneapolis will attract a large amount of prostitution.
Typical for the MSM, they get story all wrong. ABC appears to be implying that politicos draw sex workers in unusual numbers, but that was belied way down in the article itself--all conventions draw sex workers in proportion to the number of attendees.
What ABC missed, of course, is the irony that sex workers, who are offering an honest exchange of companionship for money, have to pretend to hide what they do (well, sort of). In contrast, politicians who are offering a corrupt exchange of favors for money get to pretend that they're doing somethingcompletely different.]]>
Daley appears drunk with outragetag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3012008-08-21T03:00:00Z2008-08-21T03:14:01ZThere may be some rational arguments for not lowering the drinking age below 21, but Mayor Richard Daley goes off on the proposal with none of them. His most coherent argument:I'm sorry, you have enough time to drink the rest...
goes off on the proposal with none of them. His most coherent argument:
I'm sorry, you have enough time to drink the rest of your life. I believe in that.
Given the incoherence of the rest of his statement, that point is well taken. His other points sounded like this:
You pay an awful lot of money. You look at the salaries that people get at universities. You pay a lot of money. I’m sorry, they have a legal and moral responsibility when your child goes to [get] an education, what type of environment is set on that university...
And this response to maybe lowering the drinking age to 18:
I think that’s a bad message. I think they better really look at that. Because what, are they going to drop it down to 18 or 17 or 16? I mean, think of that.
...before he starts to sound like the stumbling frat rat holding up an empty plastic cup:
We should not be so whimsical that universities can think they drop the drinking age. You think the president of the university is going to open a beer hall in his house?
What I don't get is the complete lack of irony with which this tirade was reported.]]>
We care more about you than you dotag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.3002008-08-20T04:07:06Z2008-08-20T04:08:21ZThat was pretty much exactly what Minneapolis police told this doctor....
told this doctor.]]>
The Hero Syndrometag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2992008-08-17T17:49:13Z2008-08-18T05:23:07ZAmericans love a hero. The guy who can grab victory from the jaws of defeat. The person who can come from behind to win the title. Wow. But the hero fetish can be a bit perverted. I was reminded of...
ranked his eight gold medals in order of "most impressive" based on a poll of readers. Setting aside the inherent silliness of such a ranking, the poll results said something interesting about people.
The victory voted "most impressive" by 60 percent of the readers was Phelps' win in the 100m butterfly. This was the race he almost lost; the only one where he didn't break a world record. Getting almost a quarter of the vote was the other come-from-behind victory in the 400m freestyle relay anchored by Jason Lezak. None of the other races where he or his team won convincingly by shattering world records got as much as four percent of the votes. Maybe it's just me, but I would consider the races he dominated as pretty impressive. In sports, though, excitement often means the last second save.
The infatuation of the press and public with the "last second save" is understandable in sports, but it doesn't translate well to business. For my money, too many American companies are built upon what I would call the "heroic management" model. They would never invest in better management systems when things are going well; they see their success as evidence that they don't need them. When things turn south, they can't afford advice about systems; they need (and prefer) to invest in heroic measures. If they pull out of the dive, their faith in heroics is reinforced; a company of heroes doesn't need better systems. That's how they think.
My attitude is that any system that depends upon heroics to succeed is a system that is designed to fail. In fact, most of the companies I work with regard "heroic management" as a retarded model. They see the need for heroics as a failure in some management process.
My first experience with this alternative model was at Toyota, when I went through their manufacturing training program at their plants in Fremont and Lexington. Toyota as a company, just like their auto manufacturing, is designed for continuous improvement. I have since seen and implemented similar systems at other firms that, from the outside, don't look much different from their peers, until you see the results over many years at a time.
Still, I can see why the "heroic management" model remains so popular. Steady performance and continuous improvement are BORING. It doesn't get you on the cover of Business Week. Bold strategies get you there, win or lose--with the shareholders often being the losers.]]>
Do legislators read the Constitution?tag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2982008-08-16T06:08:16Z2008-08-16T06:40:01ZU.S. Constitution:nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb... nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law Pennsylvania state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola has...
nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb... nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law
Pennsylvania state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola has said
he plans to introduce legislation that would allow authorities to keep potentially dangerous sex offenders in prison after they have finished serving their sentences.
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Illegal immigrants on ICEtag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2972008-08-14T15:00:00Z2008-08-14T15:07:37ZToday I saw two stories that illustrate that people pay more attention to behavior than words. Both stories had to do with illegal immigrants. Most Americans debate immigration policy as if the government is to be considered a trustworthy rational...
complicated scheme. In fact, while each agent of the government might be individually rational with respect to their personal incentives and constraints, anyone dealing with the government's regulatory or enforcement machinery know they are up against a frighteningly irrational and amoral, if not retarded creature.
Illegal immigrants, especially, feel like they have been screwed so much for so long in their dealings with ICE that it's laughable to consider any program that depends upon their trust and cooperation.
The first story recounts a familiar tale of someone in ICE custody:
In April, Mr. Ng began complaining of excruciating back pain. By mid-July, he could no longer walk or stand. And last Wednesday, two days after his 34th birthday, he died in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in a Rhode Island hospital, his spine fractured and his body riddled with cancer that had gone undiagnosed and untreated for months.
What the story left out was that the behavior of the authorities, while cruel, was exactly what the system required of them. Yet, the ICE authorities who set up that system act truly surprised when plans that depend on the trust of illegal immigrants work out like this:
A program to induce illegal immigrants to turn themselves in to U.S. federal authorities for a "scheduled" deportation has failed to attract substantial interest. Eight days into the scheme, only six people have surrendered, out of thousands who are eligible.
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The ultimate conservationist policytag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2962008-08-13T17:10:23Z2008-08-13T17:18:24ZI don't understand. How can all this be happening without the government telling us what to do?Consumers are buying fewer sport-utility vehicles and more energy-saving washing machines. Some trucking companies have rejiggered their engines to max out at lower speeds....
all this be happening without the government telling us what to do?
Consumers are buying fewer sport-utility vehicles and more energy-saving washing machines. Some trucking companies have rejiggered their engines to max out at lower speeds. Gridlock is easing in California. Americans drove 9.66 billion fewer miles in May than they did a year earlier, a 3.7% decline, according to the Transportation Department.
With shipping costs surging, companies are rethinking overseas production, slimming down packaging and retooling distribution networks. Yogurt maker Stonyfield Farm is only sending out fully loaded delivery trucks. Procter & Gamble Co. is filling smaller bottles with more-powerful laundry detergent. Locally made products, from beets to beer, are becoming a more attractive choice.
I must have missed the big rallies where these solutions were laid out by our dear leaders.]]>
Thomas Frank spanked by Colberttag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2952008-08-09T21:00:53Z2008-08-09T21:42:25ZThomas Frank can't even argue well against a faux conservative. What chance would he have against a real one?...
faux conservative.
What chance would he have against a real one?]]>
The FBI's leaky case against Ivinstag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2942008-08-06T06:18:33Z2008-08-07T04:12:35ZIvin's suicide has been viewed from two distinct perspectives. The government stenographers posing as a free press, dutifully typing up the selected FBI leaks provided by their sources would have us all breathing a sigh of relief; the FBI cracked...
government stenographers posing as a free press, dutifully typing up the selected FBI leaks provided by their sources would have us all breathing a sigh of relief; the FBI cracked this case, and saved us from the domestic terrorist. The inquisitive, skeptical press would have us reserve judgment, which is what civilized people do, even if the government hadn't given us every possible reason to be skeptical of their claims.
The FBI says they will release the evidence shortly. I'll believe it when I see it. Or not.
Update: WaPo is finally allowing some expression of skepticism. Touch a hot stove enough times, you start to get the idea, I guess.]]>
"We're against killing any animals...except innocent humans"tag:www.hodakvalue.com,2008:/blog//1.2932008-08-04T20:56:52Z2008-08-06T03:54:53ZIn case you haven't heard this before, it's the serious, bona fide position of the Animal Liberation Front, a group that is legitimately referred to as domestic terrorists. They or their compatriots firebombed the home of a UCSC researcher while...
domestic terrorists.
They or their compatriots firebombed the home of a UCSC researcher while he, his wife, and two children were asleep. The family had to escape from an upstairs window. The Mercury News picks up from here:
While a spokesman said he didn't know who committed the act, the Woodland Hills-based Animal Liberation Front called the attacks a "necessary" act, just like those who fought against civil rights injustices. Spokesman Dr. Jerry Vlasak showed no remorse for the family or children who were targeted.
"If their father is willing to continue risking his livelihood in order to continue chopping up animals in a laboratory than his children are old enough to recognize the consequences,'' said Vlasak, a former animal researcher who is now a trauma surgeon. "This guy knows what he is doing. He knows that every day that he goes into the laboratory and hurts animals that it is unreasonable not to expect consequences."
The article then captures the appropriate response to such a rant:
Clark, the Santa Cruz police captain, said it was "unconscionable'' for anyone to defend such acts: "To put this on par with any of the human rights issues is an absolute insult to the integrity of the people who fought and went through the human rights movement. This is what people do when they have an inability to articulate their point in any constructive way. They resort to primal acts of violence. Any reasonable person would need a logic transplant to begin to understand this level of degraded thinking."
I'm with the police on this one.
The media, on the other hand, are due for a correction. This person they generously refer to in the present tense as a "trauma surgeon" is no such thing. He has apparently not been employable as any kind of doctor since 1998. Even the PCRM, a fairly radical, but non-violent, animal rights group, distances itself from Vlasak.
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Our politicians have used that consciousness to organize a Dept. of Homeland Security and invade Iraq, the costs of which are approaching $500 billion. How many lives have been saved from all that fighting, over-the-top airport security, encroachment on our civil liberties, loss of respect among our allies, etc.?
The obverse of availability is peace of mind. We've paid dearly for it. But what would we have gotten by channeling a half a trillion dollars to medical research instead? Personally, I would much rather live with a greatly reduced fear of cancer than whatever solace I now get from having people check in at the security desk when entering my building--one of tens of thousands in Manhattan that have never been attacked.
I don't blame our politicians. They're doing what they do--grab money and power based on people's fears. The media creates the fear, which is regrettable, but they too are doing what they do to sell stories.
Ultimately I blame our schools. Our system turns out analytical morons. We are all much poorer for it.]]>
Typical for the MSM, they get story all wrong. ABC appears to be implying that politicos draw sex workers in unusual numbers, but that was belied way down in the article itself--all conventions draw sex workers in proportion to the number of attendees.
What ABC missed, of course, is the irony that sex workers, who are offering an honest exchange of companionship for money, have to pretend to hide what they do (well, sort of). In contrast, politicians who are offering a corrupt exchange of favors for money get to pretend that they're doing something completely different.]]>